Zvinowanzotaurwa kuti ndangariro yezviitiko zvemamiriro okunze ipfupi, zvichiguma nokuchengetwa kwakaganhurirwa kwezvinoitika zvakanyanyisa, izvo tinokombamira kuwedzeredza. Pane kutenda kwakapararira pakati pevanhu vemazera ose kuti nguva dzechando dzakashanduka zvakanyanya kubva pamaitiro avo ezvakaitika kare. Asi kutenda uku kwakarurama here? Ichokwadi here kuti nguva yechando iri kupfupika muSpain?
Munyaya ino tichaongorora Kana nguva yechando muSpain iri kupfupika nekupfupika.
Mazuva ekutonhora muSpain
Kwemakore akawanda, yakaderera pane yaitarisirwa kuwanda kwemazuva ekutonhora kwakanyorwa, zvichikonzerwa nekusiyana kwechisikigo, pamwe chete neakanyanya kukwirisa tembiricha, zvinoenderana nekufanotaura kwakatsanangurwa neakasiyana mamiriro emamiriro ekunze. Mumwe wavo anofanotaura kuderera kwehurefu hwechando uye kuwedzera kwehurefu hwezhizha. Ongororo yakaitwa naCésar Rodríguez yakaongorora marekodhi etembiricha kubva munzvimbo dzinoverengeka dzekutarisa munyika uye vakawana kuti mazhizha ari kuwedzera nemazuva mana kusvika ku4 pamakore gumi, zvichienderana nenharaunda. Kubva pakutsvakurudza uku, kuongorora kwakafanana kwakaitwa munzvimbo yose yenyika. Ichi chidzidzo chemazuva ano chine chinangwa chekuita ongororo imwechete chaiyo yechando.
Ndeipi nzira yakashandiswa kuita masvomhu?
Kuti uone kushandurwa kunogona kuitika kwechando, basa rekutanga nderekumisa tsananguro yechando uye nguva yayo. Ongororo iyi yakaitwa pachishandiswa ERA5 reanalysis dhatabhesi yeCopernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), iyo inopa data reawa kubva 1940 kusvika parizvino, ine kugadziriswa kwenzvimbo ye 0,25⁰ yezvose latitude uye longitudo. Maverengero anotevera akaitwa kune yega yega point:
Avhareji yekushisa kwezuva nezuva yakatemerwa kwenguva iri pakati Zvita 1 naFebruary 28 yePeninsula neBalearic Islands, kana pakati paZvita 15 naKurume 15 yeCanary Islands, kufukidza makore 1991 kusvika 2020. Kudzivirira kusanganisirwa kwenguva kunze kwechando yairatidza tembiricha shoma yemwaka iwoyo asi iyo yakatsauka zvakanyanya kubva mumamiriro enguva yechando (kusanganisira tembiricha yakadzikira), avhareji yetembiricha panzvimbo yetembiricha shoma.
Nenzira iyi, Nguva, kazhinji inoratidza yechirimo, iyo inogona kutsausa uye kurebesa zvisina kufanira mwaka wechando zvakabviswa zvinobudirira. Mushure mezvo, chikumbaridzo chakagadzwa zvichienderana ne70th percentile yekugoverwa kwemazuva ese tembiricha, zvichibvumira mazuva ekunze ane yakanyanya kunaka anomalies kuti abviswe. Iwo echikumbaridzo kukosha panzvimbo yega yega anoratidzwa mumufananidzo uri pazasi.
Kwegore rega rega kubva muna 1940 kusvika 2022, tembiricha yemazuva mapfumbamwe yekufamba yakaverengerwa uye mazuva ekutanga nekupera kwegore akasvika kana kudonha pasi petembiricha yakatarwa akaonekwa. Kuti udzivise kutaridzika kwezvinhu zvenhema, nguva yechando yakawedzerwa yakasarudzwa pane kungotarisa zuva rimwechete rechirimo kana rematsutso rinoratidzwa nekudziya kwakaderera zvisingaite.. Tembiricha pazuva rakati yakatemerwa neaverage values kubva pamazuva mana apfuura uye nemazuva mana akatevera, zvichikonzera huwandu hwemazuva mapfumbamwe.
Pakupedzisira, mazuva echando che82 akaongororwa kuwedzera kana kuderedza maitiro nekushandisa bvunzo yeMann-Kendall. Kunyangwe iyo nzira uye zvikumbaridzo zvingaite sezvisingadaviriki, mhedzisiro yakaratidza kuenderana uye kuenzanirana maitiro apo mamwe maparamita akagadziridzwa (kusanganisira muzana, mazuva, nguva yemamiriro ekunze, nezvimwewo), zvichiratidza kuti nguva yechando iri kudzikira. Nekudaro, zvakakosha kuti tizive kuti izvo zvakawanikwa zvinofanirwa kutariswa sekufungidzira uye kwete kujeka kana kuomarara tsika.
Chando chinodzikira
Zvidzidzo zvinoratidza kuderera kunoshamisa mumwaka wechando munenge munzvimbo dzese kubva kuma1940s kuderera uku hakunyanyi kutaurwa munharaunda yekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero kwepeninsula, nepo nzvimbo dzepakati nekumabvazuva dzichiratidza kudzikira kwakanyanya, nenzvimbo zhinji dziri kuona kudzikiswa kwezvimwe. kupfuura mwedzi. Paavhareji, Kureba kwechando nhasi mwedzi mupfupi pane pakati pezana remakore rechi20.
Kune matunhu uko maitiro haagone kusimbiswa neinopfuura 95% chokwadi (p kukosha kukuru kupfuura 0,05). Muchidimbu, Nguva yechando yakapfupikiswa neinopfuura 30% muinopfuura hafu yenyika. Zvakakosha kuratidza kuti chiitiko ichi chakakosha chinoonekwawo munzvimbo dzegungwa dzeCanary Islands, uko kuderedzwa kunonyanya kutaurwa uye kwakajeka kupfuura peninsula. Chikamu chetsananguro yechiitiko ichi chinogona kunge chiri mune yakaderera tembiricha amplitudes inowanikwa muzvitsuwa; Nekuda kweizvozvo, kunyangwe misiyano midiki yetembiricha inogona kukonzera shanduko huru kukarenda yemwaka.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kuderera kwemaitiro hakurevi kuti nguva yechando yega yega ipfupi pane yakatangira. Mumakore gumi apfuura kwave nechando chenguva yakasiyana-siyana, asi kana nguva yakakura yakaongororwa, Kuwedzera kwehuwandu hwenguva pfupi yechando inocherechedzwa pamwe chete nekuderedzwa kwenguva yavo yose.
Nguva yechando uye yechando matsutso
Urefu hwechando huri kuderera semugumisiro we "kuba" kwezvose zviri zviviri muchirimo uye matsutso. Uku kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma haisi yunifomu, kazhinji inoratidza kuwedzera kwakanyanya muchirimo kupfuura mumatsutso. Kurebeswa kwechirimo, kunonzi "invernavera", kunonyanya kuoneka munzvimbo dzekumaodzanyemba, nechepakati uye kumabvazuva kwepeninsula, uko munzvimbo dzakawanda kune kuwedzera kwemavhiki anopfuura matatu. Uyezve, maitiro aya anoonekwa munzvimbo huru yendima. Muenzaniso wakafanana unoonekwa muCanary Islands. Nokudaro, zvinogona kugumiswa kuti kupfupika kwechirimo nekuda kwekuwedzera kwezhizha kunobhadharwa nekurebesa kwayo pamutengo wechando.
Kana iri chiitiko chekuderedzwa kwechando nekuvhuvhuta, inonzi "inverotoño", ukuru hushoma. Mumatunhu ekumaodzanyemba nedzimwe nzvimbo dzekumabvazuva, kudzikiswa kwakadzikira zvakanyanya, nechiyero chechokwadi chisingapfuure 95%. Kune rumwe rutivi, mune mamwe matunhu maitiro anopfuura mazuva gumi uye chokwadi chiri pachena. Kunyanya, muCanary Islands, matsutso anowedzera munzvimbo dzekumadokero, anotora mavhiki anopfuura matatu. Migumisiro yekuongorora iyi inokoka fungidziro pamusoro pehurefu hunokwanisa hwechando 82 makore kubva ikozvino; Zvisinei, fungidziro dzakadaro dzinofanira kusvikwa nekuchenjerera kukuru.
Kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma kwechando kunoratidzwa nemaitiro asina-mutsara uye asina-monotonic, anoratidza nguva dzemataurirwo akataurwa, kumira uye kunyange kuwedzera kuduku. Kazhinji, kuderera kwemaitiro kunoonekwa muPeninsula kubva kumakore 1980 na1990, iyo inoenderana nehafu yechipiri yenguva yakadzidzwa. Pane kudaro, Zvitsuwa zveCanary hazvina kuona maitiro aya kusvika pakati pema1990. Nokudaro, zvinonzwisisika kuti kuderedzwa kwechando kunosangana nekuwedzera.
Humbowo hunoenderana nemaonero ekuti mwaka wechando uri kupfupika, maitiro anoenderana nefungidziro ine chekuita nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Uku kudzikira kwenguva yechando kunodzikiswa kusvika pamwero wakati nekurebesa kwechirimo, nepo mhedzisiro inocherechedzwa mumatsutso haina kukosha.