Zvinowanzotaurwa kuti ndangariro yezviitiko zvemamiriro okunze ipfupi, zvichiguma nokuchengetwa kwakaganhurirwa kwezvinoitika zvakanyanyisa, izvo tinokombamira kuwedzeredza. Pane kutenda kwakapararira pakati pevanhu vemazera ose kuti nguva dzechando dzakashanduka zvakanyanya kubva pamaitiro avo ezvakaitika kare. Asi kutenda uku kwakarurama here? Ichokwadi here kuti nguva yechando iri kupfupika muSpain?
Munyaya ino tichaongorora Kana nguva yechando muSpain iri kupfupika nekupfupika.
Mazuva ekutonhora muSpain
Kwemakore akawanda, yakaderera pane yaitarisirwa kuwanda kwemazuva ekutonhora kwakanyorwa, zvichikonzerwa nekusiyana kwechisikigo, pamwe chete neakanyanya kukwirisa tembiricha, zvinoenderana nekufanotaura kwakatsanangurwa neakasiyana mamiriro emamiriro ekunze. Mumwe wavo anofanotaura kuderera kwehurefu hwechando uye kuwedzera kwehurefu hwezhizha. Ongororo yakaitwa naCésar Rodríguez yakaongorora marekodhi etembiricha kubva munzvimbo dzinoverengeka dzekutarisa munyika uye vakawana kuti mazhizha ari kuwedzera nemazuva 4 kusvika ku15 pamakore gumi, zvichienderana nenharaunda. Kubva paongororo iyi, ongororo yakafanana yakaitwa munyika yose. Ichi chidzidzo chemazuva ano chine chinangwa chekuita ongororo imwe chete yechando. Kuti udzidze zvakawanda nezvekuti kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze kunokanganisa sei mwaka wedu, unogona kutarisa kukanganisa kwekunyunguduka kweaizi muSpain.
Ndeipi nzira yakashandiswa kuita masvomhu?
Kuti uone kushandurwa kunogona kuitika kwechando, basa rekutanga nderekumisa tsananguro yechando uye nguva yayo. Ongororo iyi yakaitwa pachishandiswa ERA5 reanalysis dhatabhesi yeCopernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), iyo inopa data reawa kubva 1940 kusvika parizvino, ine kugadziriswa kwenzvimbo ye 0,25⁰ yezvose latitude uye longitudo. Maverengero anotevera akaitwa kune yega yega point:
Avhareji yetembiricha yezuva nezuva yakatemerwa nguva kubva muna 1991 kusvika muna 2020. Kudzivirira kubatanidza nguva dziri kunze kwechando dzinopa tembiricha shoma dzinoenderana nemwaka iwoyo asi dzinotsauka zvakanyanya kubva mumamiriro enguva yechando (kusanganisira tembiricha yakadzikira), avhareji yetembiricha yakashandiswa panzvimbo yetembiricha shoma.
Nenzira iyi, Nguva, kazhinji inoratidza yechirimo, iyo inogona kutsausa uye kurebesa zvisina kufanira mwaka wechando zvakabviswa zvinobudirira. Mushure mezvo, chikumbaridzo chakagadzwa zvichienderana ne70th percentile yekugoverwa kwemazuva ese tembiricha, zvichibvumira mazuva ekunze ane yakanyanya kunaka anomalies kuti abviswe. Iwo echikumbaridzo kukosha panzvimbo yega yega anoratidzwa mumufananidzo uri pazasi.
Kwegore rega rega kubva muna 1940 kusvika 2022, tembiricha yemazuva mapfumbamwe yekufamba yakaverengerwa uye mazuva ekutanga nekupera kwegore akasvika kana kudonha pasi petembiricha yakatarwa akaonekwa. Kuti udzivise kutaridzika kwezvinhu zvenhema, nguva yechando yakawedzerwa yakasarudzwa pane kungotarisa zuva rimwechete rechirimo kana rematsutso rinoratidzwa nekudziya kwakaderera zvisingaite.. Tembiricha pazuva rakati yakatemerwa neaverage values kubva pamazuva mana apfuura uye nemazuva mana akatevera, zvichikonzera huwandu hwemazuva mapfumbamwe.
Pakupedzisira, mazuva echando che82 akaongororwa kuti aone kuwedzera kana kuderera kwemaitiro nekushandisa bvunzo yeMann-Kendall. Kunyangwe iyo nzira uye zvikumbaridzo zvingaite sezvisingaite, mhedzisiro yakaratidza kuenderana uye kuenzanirana maitiro apo mamwe ma paramita akagadziridzwa (kusanganisira percentiles, misi, climatological nguva, nezvimwewo), zvichiratidza kuti, Kutaura zvazviri, kureba kwechando kuri kuderera. Nekudaro, zvakakosha kuti tizive kuti izvo zvakawanikwa zvinofanirwa kutariswa sekufungidzira uye kwete kujeka kana kuomarara tsika.
Chando chinodzikira
Zvidzidzo zvinoratidza kuderera kunoshamisa mumwaka wechando munenge munzvimbo dzese kubva kuma1940s kuderera uku hakunyanyi kutaurwa munharaunda yekumaodzanyemba kwakadziva kumadokero kwepeninsula, nepo nzvimbo dzepakati nekumabvazuva dzichiratidza kudzikira kwakanyanya, nenzvimbo zhinji dziri kuona kudzikiswa kwezvimwe. kupfuura mwedzi. Paavhareji, Kureba kwechando nhasi mwedzi mupfupi pane pakati pezana remakore rechi20.
Pano iwe unogona kudzidza zvakawanda nezvekuti sei Nguva yechando yadarika ndiyo yaive yakambodziya yakambonyorwa munhoroondo yeSpain.. Kune matunhu uko maitiro haagone kusimbiswa neinopfuura 95% chokwadi (p-kukosha kukuru kupfuura 0,05). Muchidimbu, Nguva yechando yakapfupikiswa neinopfuura 30% muinopfuura hafu yenyika. Zvakakosha kuziva kuti chiitiko ichi chakakosha chinoonekwawo munzvimbo dzegungwa dzeCanary Islands, uko kuderera kunotonyanya kutaurwa uye kwakajeka kupfuura paIberian Peninsula. Chikamu chetsananguro yechiitiko ichi chinogona kunge chiri mune yakaderera tembiricha amplitudes inowanikwa muzvitsuwa; Nekuda kweizvozvo, kunyangwe misiyano midiki yekupisa inogona kukonzera shanduko yakakura mukarenda yemwaka.
Zvakakosha kuziva kuti kuderera kwemaitiro hakurevi kuti nguva yechando yega yega ipfupi pane yakatangira. Nguva dzechando dzehurefu hwakasiyana dzakaitika mumakore gumi apfuura, asi nguva yakafararira inoratidza zvimwe zvakawanda nezve kutanga kwechando kuSpain, inogona kupa maonero akazara ekuzvibata kwemwaka.
Nguva yechando uye yechando matsutso
Urefu hwechando huri kuderera semugumisiro we "kuba" kwezvose zviri zviviri muchirimo uye matsutso. Uku kuwedzera zvishoma nezvishoma Haisi yunifomu, kazhinji inoratidza kuwedzera kwakakosha muchirimo kupfuura mumatsutso.. Kurebeswa kwechirimo, kunozivikanwa se "invernavera," kunonyanya kuoneka munzvimbo dzekumaodzanyemba, nechepakati, uye kumabvazuva kwepeninsula, uko munzvimbo dzakawanda kwakawedzera neanopfuura mavhiki matatu. Uyezve, maitiro aya anoonekwa munzvimbo dzakawanda dzenharaunda. Muenzaniso wakafanana unoonekwa muCanary Islands. Nokudaro, zvinogona kugumiswa kuti kupfupika kwechirimo nekuda kwekuwedzera kwezhizha kunobhadharwa nekurebesa kwayo pamutengo wechando.
Kana iri chiitiko chekuderedzwa kwechando nekuvhuvhuta, inonzi "inverotoño", ukuru hushoma. Mumatunhu ekumaodzanyemba nedzimwe nzvimbo dzekumabvazuva, kudzikiswa kwakadzikira zvakanyanya, nechiyero chechokwadi chisingapfuure 95%. Kune rumwe rutivi, mune mamwe matunhu maitiro anopfuura mazuva gumi uye chokwadi chiri pachena. Kunyanya, muCanary Islands, matsutso anowedzera munzvimbo dzekumadokero, anotora mavhiki anopfuura matatu. Migumisiro yekuongorora iyi inokoka fungidziro pamusoro pehurefu hunokwanisa hwechando 82 makore kubva ikozvino; Zvisinei, fungidziro dzakadaro dzinofanira kusvikwa nekuchenjerera kukuru.
Kuderera zvishoma nezvishoma kwechando kunoratidzwa nemaitiro asina-mutsara uye asiri-monotonic, anoratidza nguva dzemataurirwo akataurwa, kumira, uye kunyange kuwedzera kuduku. Kazhinji, maitiro ekuderera akaonekwa muPeninsula kubva ku1980s uye 1990s, iyo inoenderana nehafu yechipiri yenguva yakadzidzwa. Pane kudaro,. Saka zvinonzwisisika kuti kuderedzwa kwechando kuri kusangana nekukasira.
Humbowo hunoenderana nemaonero ekuti mwaka wechando uri kupfupika, maitiro anoenderana nefungidziro ine chekuita nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Uku kudzikira kwenguva yechando kunodzikiswa kusvika pamwero wakati nekurebesa kwechirimo, nepo mhedzisiro inocherechedzwa mumatsutso haina kukosha.
