Kana isu tichifunga nezveSpain, iyo pfungwa yemamiriro ekunze akanaka inouya mupfungwa, kunyangwe nekusiyana kwayo. Nzvimbo yakanaka yenyika kumagumo ekumadokero kwekondinendi yeEurope, pamwe nekusiyana kwayo kwepasi uye pesvedzero yemhepo dzakasiyana siyana dzinobva kuSahara neNorth Atlantic, zvinokonzeresa kutonhora kuri pakati nepakati gore rose. Izvi zvinosanganisira mwaka wechando uri munyoro uye chirimo chinodziya, uye chikamu chikuru chenyika chinoramba chisina mwaka wekunaya kwemvura.
Muchikamu chino tichaenda kukudzidzisa ramangwana rakaoma reSpain muna 2050 maererano nezvidzidzo zvitsva.
Mutsara mutsva wemamiriro ekunze
Mamiriro ekunze eMedithera, inotsanangura chimiro cheSpain, inowanikwa zvakanyanya muIberian Peninsula neBalearic Islands. Zvisinei, mamiriro ezvinhu aya anogona kuchinja munguva pfupi iri kutevera.
Hazvipikiswe kuti avhareji yetembiricha yePasi yakaratidza kukwira kumusoro, ichiswedera pazvikumbaridzo zvakakomba izvo zvinotungamira kumhedzisiro inokuvadza senge kukwira kwemvura yegungwa, kunyungudika kwechando, zviitiko zvemamiriro ekunze zviri kuwedzera uye kuderera kwezvipenyu zvakasiyana-siyana.
Kubva muzana remakore rechi1,2, zviitiko zvevanhu zvakakonzera kuwedzera kwekushisa kwepasirese kweXNUMX ° C pamusoro pe pre-industrial level, uye zvirongwa zvepasi rose. Vanovavarira kudzikamisa kuwedzera uku kusvika pa1,5 °C, kana kuti zvakanyanya 2 °C, kudzivirira mhedzisiro ine njodzi.
Zvidzidzo zvitsva pamusoro pekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze
Tsvagiridzo iyi, yakaitwa nemapurofesa kubva kuUPC neCPSV uye yakaunzwa kuInternational Congress of Meteorology yeEuropean Meteorological Society (EMS 2024) muBarcelona, yakaongorora tembiricha uye kunaya kwemvura kubvira. ma1970 kusvika 2022 vachishandisa data kubva kuAEMET uye Copernicus weather service., iyo inobvumira kufanotaura mamiriro ekunze emangwana.
Mhedzisiro yacho inoratidza kuti mamwe matunhu eSpain anogona kubva kune yakajairika mamiriro ekunze eMedithera kuenda kunzvimbo yakaoma-yakanyanya kuoma panosvika 2050 kana kudziya kwepasi kukaramba kuchienderera. Kuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze uku kuchaita kuti pave nenzvimbo inodziya uye yakaoma, ichiperekedzwa nekudzikira kwekunaya kwemvura kuri pakati pe14 ne20%.
Kupisa kwepasi kunowanzo kuperekedzwa nekuwedzera kwehuwandu uye kuwanda kwekunaya kwemvura, chiitiko chinokonzerwa nekuwedzera kwemhepo uye kuwedzera kwehunyoro hwemhepo, izvo zvinozoita kuti mvura iwedzere.
Nekudaro, chiitiko ichi hachisi kuitika zvakafanana, sezvo data ichiratidza hukuru hwekusanaya kwemvura muMediterranean latitudes, maitiro anotarisirwa kuwedzera nekufamba kwenguva.
Mamiriro emamwe matunhu, akadai seguta reBarcelona uye chitsuwa cheMallorca, ese ari padyo nemhenderekedzo yeMedithera, zvichakanganiswa zvakananga nekuchinja kwemamiriro ekunze uku kana vasvika panguva yakaoma. Nekudaro, nzvimbo yakafara yeIberian Peninsula ichasangana nemamiriro ekunze zvakanyanya.
Steppe mamiriro ekunze muSpain
Sezvinotsanangurwa neKöppen classification system, mamiriro ekunze anodziya ematepi anoratidzirwa nehunyoro hwakaderera uye kushomeka kwefukidziro yegore, zvakafanana nemamiriro ezvinhu anoonekwa mumatunhu ari mukati menyika kubva munzvimbo dzemahombekombe. Mamiriro ekunze aya anosangana nekudziya kwezhizha uye kutonhora, kuoma kwechando, zvichiita kuti pave nekusiyana kwemwaka. Izvo zvinomera zvakanyanya mumatunhu aya zvinogadzirwa nezvinomera zvinomera, zvinosanganisira makwenzi uye huswa hushoma, izvo zvinotsigirawo mashoma akasiyana emhando dzemhuka.
Kana zvichangobva kuitika zvikaramba zviripo (kuongorora kunobata makore 1971 kusvika 2022), zvinotarisirwa kuti panosvika 2050 pachange kudzikira kwekunaya kwemvura kuri pakati pe14% ne20% zvichienzaniswa nemazinga aripo.
Mhedzisiro yechidzidzo ichi inoratidza kuti, kana kufambira mberi kukaramba kuchitevedza nzira imwe chete, mamiriro ekunze akanyanya mupeninsular Spain neBalearic Islands anotarisirwa kushanduka kuita mamiriro ekunze emhando yesteppe, akaiswa muchikamu chinotonhora semi-yakaoma. Shanduko iyi inotarisirwa kubatsira mukuwedzera kweiyo inozivikanwa se "brown" Spain.
Zvinopfuura makumi mana muzana epasi angangosangana neshanduko kubva kumhepo yakadzikama kuenda kune yakaoma mamiriro ekunze, inoratidzwa nekuwanda kwemawere uye mamiriro angangoita egwenga, zvichisimbisa maitiro aripo ekuderera kwekunaya kwemvura. Mamiriro ekunze eMedithera anotarisirwa kuchinja kubva inomiririra 24,43% yenzvimbo yepeninsular uye yechitsuwa panguva yereferensi 1971-2000 kune chete 10,13% mu2040-2060 nguva.
Mwaka uye tembiricha inoshanduka
Tembiricha muBalearic Islands uye mainland Spain yakawedzera ne3,27º, ichipfuura ese avhareji yepasi rose ye1,19 °C neavhareji yenharaunda yeMediterranean ye1,58 °C. Zvichienzaniswa na1971, iye zvino kwava neavhareji yehusiku humwe hwuviri hunotutunuka munzvimbo yacho yose, nedzimwe nzvimbo, dzakadai sebani rokumaodzanyemba, mipata yerwizi rweGuadalquivir neEbro, uye mhenderekedzo yeMediterranean, dziri kuwedzera kwehusiku 12 kubvira pakutanga kwegungwa. 30s panguva imwecheteyo, nhamba yemazuva ezhizha yakakura neavhareji yemazuva makumi matatu nematanhatu muSpain yese, nepo nguva yemafungu ekupisa yakawedzera, izvo zvino zvinogara pakati pe1970 ne36 mamwe mazuva. Muitiro wakajeka wokusanaya kwemvura unoonekwa munzvimbo zhinji.
Inenge mimwe mwedzi miviri yezhizha ichiperekedzwa nenguva yakareba yekusanaya kwemvura. Zvinotarisirwa kuti panosvika 2050 avhareji tembiricha munyika ichawedzera ne1,43º zvichienzaniswa nemakore 2013-2022. Paavhareji, mazuva ezhizha (DS) anotarisirwa kuwedzera nemazuva 22,7, ukuwo husiku hwekupisa huchawedzera nehusiku 7,2 muSpain yese maererano nenguva yataurwa. Shanduko iyi yaizoenzana neinenge mwedzi miviri yezhizha zvichienzaniswa nenguva ya1971.
Muna 2050, avhareji yemvura inonaya pagore muSpain neBalearic Islands inotarisirwa kudzikira zvakanyanya kusvika pa417 mm, inova 126,3 mm pasi peavhareji yakanyorwa mukati menguva ya1971 kusvika 2000. yekunaya kwemvura yakanyanyisa kunenge kwanyanya.
Ndinovimba kuti neruzivo urwu unogona kudzidza zvakawanda nezve remangwana reSpain mumamiriro ekunze.