Nyika zvakare yaisa tariro yayo pamusangano mutsva wemamiriro ekunze, panguva ino, muBaku, Azerbaijan, uko kwatanga COP29. Chiitiko ichi, icho chichagara kusvika Mbudzi 22, chinovimbisa kuve kiyi yekuisa hwaro hwemhinduro yepasi rose mukushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Nekudaro, manzwiro ekusavimbika anopinda munhaurirano dzekutanga, kunyanya nekuda kwekushaikwa kwezvisungo uye kusavapo kwevanhu vakakosha vakaita semutungamiri weUnited States, Joe Biden, nevamwe vatungamiriri vakakosha vakaita saXi Jinping, iyo ine. kwakaunza kutsoropodza uye kusava nechokwadi pamusoro pekubudirira kwemusangano.
Mari yemamiriro ekunze ndiyo, pasina kupokana, musoro mukuru wemusangano uyu. Nyika dzakanyanya kukanganiswa nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze, kunyanya nyika dzichiri kusimukira, dzinotarisira kuwana chisungo chakasimba kubva kunyika dzakapfuma kwazvo kuti dzibatsire kurwisa uye kugadzirisa kune zvinoparadza izvo zvave kutotanga kuona munharaunda dzadzo.
Mari, dambudziko rinodiwa
MuBaku, chinangwa ndechekutsanangura huwandu hwemari ichaunganidzwa kubva muna 2025 kuti iwane mari yekuita kurwisa shanduko yemamiriro ekunze. Chinangwa chiripo, chakavambwa muna 2009, chaive chekuunganidza zana remabhiriyoni emadhora pagore, nhamba iyo, kunyange zvazvo yakashuva panguva iyoyo, haina kusvika kusvika muna 2022, uye chikamu chikuru chemari iyi yakapiwa nenzira yezvikwereti, izvo zvakawedzera chikwereti chenyika dzakawanda dzichiri kusimukira.
Zvazvino zvinodikanwa zvakakwirira zvikuru. Zvinofungidzirwa kuti mari iri pakati pe1 ne2,4 trillion yemadhora pagore ichadiwa kugadzirisa dambudziko remamiriro ekunze panosvika gore ra2030. Nyika dzichiri kusimukira, kunyanya idzo dzakanyanya kutambudzika, dzinosimbirira kuti mari inofanira kubva kunyika idzo dzakambobatsira zvakanyanya mukuburitswa kwegasi rinopisa.
Munyori mukuru weUnited Nations Climate Change area, VaSimon Stiell, vabuda pachena vachiratidza kuti mari yemamiriro ekunze. “Hachisi chiito cherudo, chinodiwa pasi rose”. Pfungwa yemarudzi akapfuma kwazvo anobatsira vanotambura zvakanyanya haisi chiitiko chekururamisira kwemamiriro ekunze chete, asiwo kudyara mukugadzikana kwepasi. Kana tikasakurumidza kuita chimwe chinhu, mamiriro ekunze anonyanyisa achawedzera, achibata munhu wose, pasinei neupfumi kana nzvimbo.
Musangano wakaratidzwa ne geopolitics
Kusarudzwa kwa Azerbaijan inobata COP29 yakakonzera kukakavara, kunyanya nokuti nyika "petrostate", ine hupfumi hwayo hunobva pamafuta uye gasi, iyo inoisa mukupesana kwakajeka nekuedza kwekuchinja kune simba rakachena. Zvinopfuura 90% zveAzerbaijan zvinotengeswa kunze kwenyika zvinobva kumafuta emafuta, uye GDP yayo inoenderana ne64% pane izvi zviwanikwa, zvichiita kuti ive imwe yevanonyanya kutengesa gasi munyika.
Pamusoro pezvo, mutungamiri weCOP29, Mukhtar Babayev, aimbova director wekambani yemafuta ehurumende Socar, anga ariwo nyaya yekushoropodzwa. Sarudzo yaBabayev neAzerbaijan kuti vatungamire musangano uyu yakamutsa fungidziro pamusoro pekugona kuita kwemafuta negasi munhaurirano dzemamiriro ekunze.
Ngozi yegore risati ramboitika
Gwaro richangoburwa nesangano reWorld Meteorological Organisation (WMO) rawedzera chimbichimbi panhaurirano idzi. 2024 inotarisirwa kuve gore rinodziya zvakanyanya pane rekodhi, uye chinhu chinonyanya kunetsa ndechekuti gore rino rinogona kunge riri rekutanga umo tembiricha yepasi rose inodarika chipingamupinyi chakakosha che1,5 degrees Celsius, chikumbaridzo chinotsvakwa kudziviswa maererano neChibvumirano cheParis.
Iyi data yanga iri "yambiro tsvuku" yevatungamiriri venyika uye masangano asiri ehurumende aripo muBaku. Migumisiro yekudziya kwepasi yakatoonekwa nenjodzi dzinongoitika dzoga dzinoparadza semvura zhinji ichangobva kunaya muValencia nedzimwe nzvimbo dzepasi. Simon Stiell akayeuchidza vaivapo kuti "hapana anodzivirirwa nedambudziko iri", uye kuti mamiriro okunze akaipa acharamba achikanganisa nyika dzakapfuma nedzine urombo kana danho rakasimba rikasatorwa.
Ramangwana risina chokwadi
Pasinei nekukurumidzira uye kuipa kwemamiriro ezvinhu, COP29 yanga isina kusawirirana uye kusawirirana. Geopolitical misiyano ichiripo pamatafura enhaurirano. Pasi rose, pane kushushikana pamusoro pebasa iro VaDonald Trump, vachangobva kusarudzwa semutungamiri weUnited States, uye maonero avo anozivikanwa ekusagutsikana nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Mutemu yake yapfuura, akabvisa United States muchibvumirano cheParis, zvichisiya mukaha wakakura muzvisungo zvekudzikisa hutsi pasi rose.
European Union yakabuda pachena kuti nyaya iyi inotarisirwa kuve pakati penhaurirano uye yadaidzira America haidzokeri shure mukurwisa kushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze. Nyika dzeEurope dzakaisawo patafura nyaya yekuti nyika dzichiri kusimukira dzakaita seChina dzitange kusimbaradza mari yemamiriro ekunze, sezvo kusvika pari zvino ndidzo dziri kuwana mari idzi, zvisinei nekuti dziri kuburitsa mari zhinji pasi rose.
Kusawirirana uku, kwakawedzerwa kukushoropodzwa kweAzerbaijan seyakatambira, zvinoreva kuti tariro inoiswa pakuwana kuwirirana kwakasimba mumazuva anouya. Inoramba ichionekwa kana vatungamiri venyika vachasimuka pachiitiko chacho uye vachakwanisa kusvika pazvibvumirano zvine simba guru mukurwisana nekushanduka kwemamiriro ekunze.
Chivanhu chiri mukurwisana nenguva. COP29 muBaku inoonekwa semukana wakakosha wekusimudzira mari yemamiriro ekunze uye kutsanangura patsva mabasa enyika mukurwisa kudziya kwepasi. Zvisinei, zvakanganiswa nekusagadzikana kwezvematongerwo enyika uye pesvedzero yenyika dzinotsamira peturu, ramangwana harina kujeka.